东太平洋二级飓风“基科”(11E.Kiko) - 环流小巧，西行发展 - NHC:90KT

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编扰资讯

EP, 93, 2025082812,   , BEST,   0, 128N, 1120W,  20, 1010, DB

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2. Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend while
the system moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph across the
central to western part of the eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281711
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Aug 28 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula (EP93):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend while
the system moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph across the
central to western part of the eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form this weekend or early next week
off the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some gradual development of this system thereafter,
and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week
while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
offshore of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 290504
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Aug 28 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula (EP93):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend while
the system moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph across the
central to western part of the eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form this weekend or early next week
off the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some gradual development of this system thereafter,
and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week
while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph offshore
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

pocketbox

WTPN21 PHNC 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8N 113.2W TO 13.4N 118.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 290900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.9N 113.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93E) IS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N
113.6W, APPROXIMATELY 691 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS, MEXICO.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE (EIR) IMAGERY AND A 290455Z MHS
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
FLARING, ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. A 290458Z
ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 10-15 KNOT WINDS TO
THE NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS IS SHOWING MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20
KNOTS, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST)
OF 27-28 C. DETERMINISITC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
PORTRAYING GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
300900Z.//
NNNN

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291712
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Aug 29 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula (EP93):
A weak area of low pressure located about 800 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week
while moving west-northwestward or westward at around 10 mph across
the central to western part of the eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms south of southern Mexico.  An area of low
pressure could form from this system this weekend or early next
week, and environmental conditions appear conducive for a tropical
depression to form by the middle of next week while moving
generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph offshore of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 292309
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Aug 29 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Western East Pacific (EP93):
A weak area of low pressure located about 800 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form early next week while moving
west-northwestward or westward at around 10 mph across the central
to western part of the eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms south of southern Mexico.  An area of low
pressure could form from this system this weekend or early next
week, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of
next week while moving generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
offshore of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

ygsj24

WTPN21 PHNC 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93E) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290851ZAUG2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 290900). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 93E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.9N
113.6W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 117.3W, APPROXIMATELY 452 NM SOUTHWEST
OF SOCORRO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE (EIR) IMAGERY DEPICTS
FLARING, ISOLATED CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 300528Z ASCAT METOP-C IMAGE
DEPICTS WEAKER WINDS (10 KNOTS) WRAPPING INTO 93E FROM THE NORTHEAST
WHILE ALSO HAVING A LACK OF WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS IS SHOWING MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW, AND WARM (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, PORTRAYING GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB.
THIS SYSTEM IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.//
NNNN

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301138
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Aug 30 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Western East Pacific (EP93):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located about 900 miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California has increased since yesterday.  Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while
moving westward at around 10 mph across the western part of the
eastern Pacific basin. The system is likely to cross into the
central Pacific basin during the middle to latter part of next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms south of southern Mexico.  An area of low
pressure could form from this system early next week, and it is
likely to become a tropical depression by the middle of next week
while moving west-northwestward or northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

pocketbox

WTPN21 PHNC 301830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (93E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300851ZAUG2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.6N 119.8W TO 18.0N 124.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 301830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.6N 119.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT
14.2N 117.3W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 119.8W, APPROXIMATELY 393NM
SOUTHWEST OF CLARION.ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS INDICATE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 C), LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, PORTRAYING
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH A WESTERN TRACK.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN PHNC 300900).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
311830Z.//
NNNN

ygsj24

279
ABPZ20 KNHC 301732
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 30 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Western East Pacific (EP93):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located about 900 miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula is showing some signs of organization,
but it is not yet clear if the system has a well-defined center of
circulation.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is
expected to form by early next week while moving westward at around
10 mph across the western part of the eastern Pacific basin. The
system is likely to cross into the central Pacific basin during the
middle to latter part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms south of southern Mexico.  An area of low
pressure could form from this system early next week, and it is
likely to become a tropical depression by the middle of next week
while moving west-northwestward or northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg