墨西哥西南热带风暴“洛雷娜”(12E.Lorena) - 西北行进，趋向下加利福尼亚

qiqi

EP, 94, 2025090112,   , BEST,   0, 153N, 1026W,  25, 1009, DB,

---

1. South of Southwestern Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms off the coast of southwestern Mexico.  An area of
low pressure is expected to form from this system within the next
day or so, and it will likely become a tropical depression around
the middle of the week.  This system is expected to move
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph off the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next few days.  Interests in the Baja
California peninsula should monitor the progress of this
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

pocketbox

WTPN21 PHNC 011330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.2N 102.4W TO 19.1N 110.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 011200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.3N 102.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94E) IS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N
102.6W, APPROXIMATELY 178NM SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) JUST OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO WITH
PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94E WILL MOVE GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
021330Z.
//
NNNN

ygsj24

049
ABPZ20 KNHC 011736
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 1 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located in the east Pacific basin well west-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.  Kiko is
expected to cross into the central Pacific basin by the weekend.

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP94):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
less than 150 miles off the coast of southwestern Mexico are
starting to become better organized, and recent satellite-derived
wind data indicate that winds to 35 mph are present in the
disturbance close to the coast of Mexico.  This system is expected
to become a tropical depression by the middle of the week.  This
system is expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward at  
10 to 15 mph off the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next
couple of days, then could turn northward and approach the Baja
California peninsula later this week.  Interests in the Baja
California peninsula should monitor the progress of the
disturbance, as watches or warnings could be required for portions
of this area on Tuesday.  Regardless of development, heavy rainfall
is possible across coastal portions of southwestern and
west-central Mexico today through mid-week.  Heavy rainfall is also
expected across Baja California Sur and northwestern Mexico Tuesday
night through late this week.  This heavy rainfall could lead to
flash flooding, especially in mountainous areas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 012311
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Sep 1 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located in the east Pacific basin well west-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.  Kiko is
expected to cross into the central Pacific basin by the weekend.

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP94):
Showers and thunderstorms are becoming better organized in
association with a broad area of low pressure located a little more
than 100 miles off the coast of southwestern Mexico.  In addition,
earlier satellite-derived wind data indicate that winds to 35 mph
are occurring on its north side, close to the coast of Mexico.  This
system is expected to become a tropical depression or tropical storm
in the next day or so while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph off the coast of southwestern Mexico.  The disturbance is
expected to turn northwestward toward the Baja California peninsula
later in the week, and watches or warnings could be required for
portions of that area on Tuesday.  Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall is possible across coastal portions of southwestern and
west-central Mexico during the next few days, and these rains will
likely spread to Baja California Sur later in the week. The heavy
rains could lead to flash flooding, especially in mountainous areas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

菜园子

FNV3 EAGLE 18Z

ygsj24

942
WTPZ42 KNHC 020245
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122025
900 PM CST Mon Sep 01 2025

Deep convection associated with a low pressure system to the south
of southwestern Mexico has persisted and continues to become better
organized over the past several hours.  There is a fairly
well-defined upper-level anticyclonic outflow pattern over the area,
with cloud tops to -70 deg C or colder near the estimated center.  
Based on the increased organization of the cloud pattern, the system
is being designated as a tropical depression at this time.  Dvorak
satellite classifications are 1.5/1.5 and 2.0/2.0 from TAFB and SAB,
respectively, which supports a current intensity estimate of about
30 kt.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/12 kt.  A mid-level
ridge to the northeast of the tropical cyclone should cause the
system to move on a west-northwestward to northwestward track for
the next couple of days.  Steering currents are expected to
gradually weaken through the forecast period, resulting in a
decrease in the forward speed of the cyclone.  In 3 to 5 days, the
slow-moving system is expected to turn northward and then
northeastward into a weakness in the ridge.  The official track
forecast is close to the latest corrected consensus guidance, HCCA.

The tropical cyclone is currently situated in a weak shear
environment over SSTs of around 30 deg C.  Strengthening is likely,
and the system will probably be nearing hurricane intensity in a
couple of days.  Later in the forecast period, cooler ocean waters
and a more stable air mass should cause gradual weakening.  The
official forecast is similar to the IVCN intensity model consensus.

Interests in southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur should
monitor the progress of this system.   A Tropical Storm Watch could
be required for portions of Baja California on Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 17.2N 105.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  02/1200Z 18.3N 107.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  03/0000Z 19.7N 109.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  03/1200Z 21.0N 111.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  04/0000Z 22.0N 112.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
60H  04/1200Z 23.0N 113.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
72H  05/0000Z 24.0N 113.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
96H  06/0000Z 26.3N 113.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  07/0000Z 28.2N 111.8W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

菜园子

EAGLE、FNV3

ygsj24

256
WTPZ42 KNHC 020856
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122025
200 AM MST Tue Sep 02 2025

The tropical depression has been relatively steady overnight.  
Periodic bursts of deep convection continue to form over the
low-level center, with cold cloud tops of less than -80 degrees C. A
scatterometer pass from 0335 UTC showed a small circulation with
reliable winds of 30 kt.  The initial intensity is therefore held at
30 kt, which is also supported by the latest TAFB T2.0
classification.

The cyclone is still moving west-northwestward at 13 kt along the
southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge.  The ridge should soon
begin to steer the depression generally northwestward for the next
couple of days.  By the end of the week, the tropical cyclone is
expected to slow down as it reaches a weakness in the ridge and
gradually turn northward.  Over the weekend, the depression is
forecast to turn north-northeastward to northeastward toward the
Baja California peninsula.  The latest official forecast track
is west of the previous forecast as a result of an adjustment to
the initial position reflecting a delay in the northwestward
turn, and lies between the simple and corrected consensus aids.  

Warm waters and a quiescent, moist atmosphere should allow the
depression to steadily intensify during the next couple of days.
The system is still expected to peak just under hurricane strength.
By day 3, the cyclone is forecast to cross the 26 degree C isotherm
and experience increasing vertical wind shear and decreasing
mid-level humidities which should cause gradual weakening.  Little
changes have been made to the latest intensity forecast.   

Interests in southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur should
monitor the progress of this system.   A Tropical Storm Watch could
be required for portions of Baja California later today or
Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0900Z 17.6N 106.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  02/1800Z 18.6N 108.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  03/0600Z 20.1N 110.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  03/1800Z 21.2N 112.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  04/0600Z 22.1N 113.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
60H  04/1800Z 23.2N 114.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
72H  05/0600Z 24.2N 114.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
96H  06/0600Z 26.3N 113.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  07/0600Z 28.2N 112.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci

pocketbox

WTPZ42 KNHC 021500
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 AM MST Tue Sep 02 2025

GOES-East imagery depicts a steadily improving convective structure,
where earlier the presentation was more elongated, but more recently
is taking on a banded structure with bursting overshooting tops near
the center, suggesting better overall organization of the small
core. Recent Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB/SAB are at 2.5
and 3.5, respectively, indicative of the intensification.  As such,
initial intensity is set at 40 kt, slightly favoring the TAFB
estimate though satellite trends continue to improve. Thus, Tropical
Depression Twelve-E has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Lorena.   

The cyclone is now moving northwestward at 12 kt along the
southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge.  The ridge should steer
the storm generally northwestward for the next couple of days.  
However, the strength and therefore, depth of the cyclone will have
a sizable impact on its expected track and potential recurvature
towards Baja California.  Model solutions that are stronger bring
the cyclone northward and eastward relative to the overall guidance
suite closer to Baja California earlier. Thus interests along Baja
California Sur should monitor updates to the track closely. Given
overall trends, a slightly faster, northward adjustment to the track
was made.  The latest track forecast shows landfall in central Baja
at 96 hours, but there remains significant spread in the track
guidance, with the latest GFS forecast faster and to the east, while
the most recent ECMWF forecast is a significant leftward outlier,
not ever reaching the Mexican coastline. Given the spread, stay
tuned to updates in subsequent forecast packages.  

Very warm waters and ample deep layer moisture will allow for a
steady intensification over the next few days, with increasing
potential for Lorena to reach hurricane status in the next next 24
to 48 hours. Lorena is expected to cross the 26 degree C isotherm in
2-3 days. That factor, in combination with increasing southwesterly
vertical shear should result in weakening after that time until  
landfall across the Baja California Peninsula. The latest NHC
intensity forecast is higher than the previous cycle, but remains a
little under the HCCA consensus aid.

Interests in southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur should
monitor the progress of this system.   A Tropical Storm Watch could
be required for portions of Baja California later today or
Wednesday.

Key Messages:

1.  Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Lorena will begin
to affect Baja California Sur on Wednesday, and southwestern Sonora
by Thursday. This will increase the risk of life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain.

2. Lorena is forecast to approach the Baja California peninsula
later this week.  Although it is too soon to specify the exact
location and magnitude of wind impacts,  residents should closely
monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure that they have their
preparedness plan in place. Watches could be required for a portion
of the Baja California peninsula later today or on Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 18.3N 107.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  03/0000Z 19.4N 109.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  03/1200Z 20.7N 111.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
36H  04/0000Z 21.9N 112.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
48H  04/1200Z 23.0N 113.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
60H  05/0000Z 23.9N 114.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
72H  05/1200Z 24.9N 114.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
96H  06/1200Z 26.8N 113.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
120H  07/1200Z 28.9N 111.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Gallina