墨西哥以南热带风暴“马里奥”(13E.Mario) - 短暂成旋

DENINE

95E INVEST 250909 1800 11.7N 93.7W EPAC 20 1009

---

1. South of Southern and Southwestern Mexico:
A tropical wave located south of the southern coast of Guatemala is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  
Environmental conditions are favorable for development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late this
week as it moves west-northwestward, roughly parallel to but
offshore of the Mexican coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

ygsj24

589
ABPZ20 KNHC 100507
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Sep 9 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located in the central Pacific basin just northeast of
Oahu in the Hawaiian Islands.

South of Southern and Southwestern Mexico (EP95):
A tropical wave located a couple hundred miles offshore of the coast
of southern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are favorable for
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by late this week as it moves west-northwestward, roughly
parallel to but offshore of the Mexican coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

ygsj24

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101726
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 10 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Kiko, located in the central Pacific basin
just north of Oahu in the Hawaiian Islands.

South of Southern Mexico (EP95):
Recent satellite surface wind data indicate that an area of low
pressure has formed a couple of hundred miles south of Puerto
Angel, Mexico.  The associated shower and thunderstorm activity has
become better organized since yesterday, and a tropical depression
is likely to form in a day or so.  The system is forecast to move
west-northwestward, roughly parallel to but offshore of the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake

ygsj24

WTPN21 PHNC 102030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9N 96.4W TO 16.2N 102.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 101800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.1N 96.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95E) IS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N
96.6W, APPROXIMATELY 198NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SALINA CRUZ, MEXICO.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A COMPACT0 LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION, WITH BROAD BUT FORMATIVE BANDING FEATURES. A PARTIAL
101518Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALS 20-25 KNOT WINDS BEGINNING TO WARP NEAR
THE CENTER OF THE LLC. IN THE WEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THERE IS AN
ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS APPROXIMATELY 150NM FROM THE
CETNER. ENVROMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD
EQAUTORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH A NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND GEFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23
TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
112030Z.//
NNNN

ygsj24

964
ABPZ20 KNHC 102337
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Sep 10 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
just offshore of the coast of southern Mexico are showing signs of
organization.  Environmental conditions are favorable for further
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next
day or so as the system moves west-northwestward, roughly parallel
to but offshore of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

ygsj24

517
ABPZ20 KNHC 110513
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Sep 10 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
just offshore of the coast of southern Mexico are showing signs of
organization.  Environmental conditions are favorable for further
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form on Thursday
as the system moves west-northwestward, roughly parallel to but
offshore of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

ygsj24

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 112033
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132025
300 PM CST Thu Sep 11 2025

High resolution GOES visible satellite imagery throughout today
indicates that the disturbance south of Mexico has become better
organized.  The system has a partially exposed low-level circulation
located near an area of bursting deep convection with cloud top
temperatures of less than -80 degrees C.  Subjective Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB are T2.5 and T2.0, respectively.  
Therefore, advisories have been initiated on Tropical Depression
Thirteen-E with an initial intensity of 30 kt.  

The depression is moving at an uncertain 300/5 kt.  A mid-level
ridge to centered over northern Mexico and Texas should steer the
cyclone west-northwestward with an acceleration in forward speed
during the next few days.  Over the weekend, the system should turn
more northwestward as it rounds the periphery of the ridge and
continue that motion through the end of the forecast period.  There
is little cross-track variance in the guidance envelope, however, a
bit more of an along-track spread.  The official track forecast lies
between the various consensus aids and the Google DeepMind guidance.

The new cyclone has a rather small circulation.  In the next couple
of days, global models suggest vertical wind shear and the proximity
to land should limit the system's ability to strengthen.  By the
weekend, environment conditions should become more conducive for
steady strengthening.  The depression is forecast to reach
tropical storm strength in a day or so and become a hurricane by
day 3.  Late in the forecast period, cooler sea surface temperatures
and dry mid-level humidities should induce a weakening trend.  The
initial NHC intensity forecast lies on the higher end of the
intensity guidance envelope.

Predicted tropical-storm-force winds are expected to remain
offshore of the coast of Mexico.  However, heavy rains and
potentially gusty winds are possible along portions of the
southern coast of Mexico during the next day or so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/2100Z 15.5N  98.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  12/0600Z 16.1N 100.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  12/1800Z 16.7N 102.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  13/0600Z 17.3N 104.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  13/1800Z 17.7N 106.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
60H  14/0600Z 18.2N 107.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
72H  14/1800Z 18.6N 109.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  15/1800Z 20.0N 111.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  16/1800Z 22.1N 113.7W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch

ygsj24

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 120245
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132025
900 PM CST Thu Sep 11 2025

The satellite appearance of Thirteen-E has improved some since the
previous advisory, with deep convection continuing to burst over or
near the estimated low-level center.  The latest subjective Dvorak
current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 2.5/35 kt and
2.0/30 kt.  Meanwhile the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have
ranged from 28 to 35 kt since the previous advisory.  Based on a
blend of these data, the initial intensity has been held, perhaps
conservatively, at 30 kt for this advisory package.

The depression is moving to the west-northwest, or 290 degrees, at
10 kt.  This general motion is expected to continue for the next
couple days, as the cyclone is steered by a mid-level ridge over
northern Mexico and Texas.  A turn toward the northwest along with a
decrease in forward speed is expected over the weekend, as the
system moves along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level
ridge, with that motion continuing through day 5.  The official
track forecast lies is very close to the previous advisory, roughly
between the corrected consensus HCCA and AI-Driven GDMI track aids.

The circulation of Thirteen-E remains very small, with an estimated
radius of the outermost closed isobar only 80 n mi, and this may be
generous.  In the next couple of days, the global models suggest
that moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear, along with the
proximity to land, should limit the system's ability to intensify
significantly, and the intensity forecast only calls for some slow
strengthening.  Over the weekend, environmental conditions should
become more favorable for intensification, as the system will be
farther offshore, over very warm water and surrounded by moist
mid-level air, while vertical wind shear will drop off to light
levels and become aligned with the motion of the cyclone.  This
should lead to steady strengthening, with the system forecast to
become a hurricane by 72 hours.  By day 5, cooler sea surface
temperatures and drier more stable environment should lead to a
weakening trend.  The official intensity forecast lies on the higher
end of the intensity guidance envelope and closest to the AI-Driven
GDMI intensity aid.


Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Thirteen-E
will impact southern and southwestern Mexico through Sunday, which
could result in flash flooding, particularly in areas of higher
terrain.

2. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later
tonight, while moving parallel to the southern and southwestern
coasts of Mexico.  While the strongest winds are expected to remain
offshore, gusty winds are possible along portions of the southern
and southwestern coast of Mexico from Punta Maldonado through
Manzanillo during the next day or so. Interests in these areas
should monitor the progress of this system.  


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0300Z 16.0N  99.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  12/1200Z 16.5N 101.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  13/0000Z 17.1N 103.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  13/1200Z 17.6N 105.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  14/0000Z 18.0N 107.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
60H  14/1200Z 18.4N 108.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
72H  15/0000Z 18.9N 109.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  16/0000Z 20.7N 112.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  17/0000Z 23.0N 114.7W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

ygsj24

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 120836
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132025
300 AM CST Fri Sep 12 2025

The depression remains poorly organized tonight, with only small
areas of convection bursting to the west of the estimated low-level
center. Recent scatterometer data and surface observations indicate
the circulation remains very small. While believable scatterometer
winds up to about 30 kt were noted offshore in the northern
semicircle of the circulation, observations from the Acapulco
International Airport indicated these winds did not reach the coast
when the system made its closest approach earlier tonight. Since the
overall satellite presentation has slightly worsened since the
earlier scatterometer pass, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt.

The initial motion is west-northwestward (295/10 kt), and the system
should maintain this heading during the next couple of days while
being steered by a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico.
Later this weekend through early next week, the system is forecast
to move toward the northwest as it rounds the southwestern portion
of the steering ridge. The NHC track forecast through 60 h has been
nudged slightly northward this cycle, in agreement with the latest
multi-model consensus aids.

In the near term, only modest strengthening is forecast due to the
system's close proximity to land. Some models, including the GFS and
ECMWF, completely lose the circulation later today. But if the
system remains offshore and survives its close passage to the
southwestern coast of Mexico, the environment should become somewhat
more favorable for strengthening with weaker shear conditions over
warm waters. Overall, the intensity guidance trended much lower this
cycle. The updated NHC intensity forecast reflects this trend, but
remains on the high end of the guidance envelope. Future downward
adjustments may be necessary, and it cannot be ruled out that the
system dissipates before the end of the 5-day forecast period.


Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Thirteen-E
will impact southern and southwestern Mexico through Sunday, which
could result in flash flooding, particularly in areas of higher
terrain.

2. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm today while
moving parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. While the
strongest winds are expected to remain offshore, gusty winds are
possible along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico from
Acapulco to Manzanillo during the next day or so. Interests in these
areas should monitor the progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0900Z 16.5N 100.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  12/1800Z 17.0N 102.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  13/0600Z 17.6N 104.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  13/1800Z 18.1N 106.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  14/0600Z 18.6N 108.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
60H  14/1800Z 19.0N 109.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
72H  15/0600Z 19.5N 110.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
96H  16/0600Z 21.0N 113.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  17/0600Z 23.0N 115.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart