ABPW10 PGTW 130330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/130330Z-130600ZSEP2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.2N
126.2E, APPROXIMATELY 153 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LEGAZPI. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION TO THE
NORTH NORTHWEST WITH A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 130029Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 15-20 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS),
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30 C), AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL MOVE
WEST OVER THE PHILIPPINES WITH ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN REGARD
TO DEVELOPMENT. ENSEMBLES ARE IN AGREEMENT AS WELL WITH ECENS SHOWING A
WESTWARD TRACK WITH A HIGHER INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B. (1).//
NNNN
ABPW10 PGTW 130600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/130600Z-140600ZSEP2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.2N 126.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 125.8E, APPROXIMATELY 128 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LEGAZPI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A WEAKLY DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 130029Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 15-20
KNOT WINDS WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY WITH WEAKER WINDS TO THE
SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15
KTS) AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30 C), OFFSET BY INTERACTION
WITH THE PHILIPPINES AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL MOVE WESTWARD OVER
THE PHILIPPINES WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT. AS FOR ENSEMBLES, ECENS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN THE SHORT TERM THAN GEFS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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发表于 2025-9-13 06:13
发表于 2025-9-13 06:42
