背风群岛以东92L - 12.3N 41.0W - 数值支持发展 - NHC:60%

qiqi

AL, 92, 2025091512,   , BEST,   0, 119N,  383W,  25, 1010, DB,

---

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The
disturbance will begin to move into a more favorable environment for
development in the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by the middle to latter part of this week as the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 151743
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A broad area of low pressure has formed roughly midway between the
Windward Islands and the coast of west Africa.  This system has
become better organized since yesterday and is expected to move
through a favorable environment for further development.  A
tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form by the
middle to latter part of this week as the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Putnam

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 152309
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A broad area of low pressure is located about midway between
the Windward Islands and the coast of west Africa.  This system
is showing signs of organization, and is expected to move through a
favorable environment for further development.  A tropical
depression or tropical storm is likely to form by the middle to
latter part of this week while the system moves west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch