威克岛西北91W - 23.3N 166.4E - 高纬西行，数值支持发展

理可的呆萌呆毛

91W INVEST 250916 1800 22.3N 168.0E WPAC 15 1013

Enceladus

两只大饼跑得快

VistaBSOD

久违的超远洋扰动

pocketbox

ABPW10 PGTW 170200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/170200Z-170600ZSEP2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161951ZSEP2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 16SEP25 1800Z, TROPICAL STORM 23W (TWENTYTHREE) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 122.2E, APPROXIMATELY 114 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 162100) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
...
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 22.9N
167.1E, APPROXIMATELY 221 NM NORTH OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY OBSCURED, LOWER
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION, PRIMARILY IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A RECENT 162209Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SHARP TROUGH
WITH A SWATH OF WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS, GOOD
POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST)
OF 29-30 C. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK, BUT ARE SPLIT ON DEVELOPMENT, WITH ENSEMBLES SHOWING MORE
INTENSIFICATION THAN THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND GFS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1013 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED
AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM AND ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(2).//
NNNN

VistaBSOD

超远洋货，已经升MEDIUM，如果能成可能是大刷苗子，也可能寄在远洋，这也算超远洋经典结局了

shadow17

形態不錯
但有沒有風場掃瞄

Enceladus

ASCAT B UHR 10Z

shadow17

JMA: TD

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1012 HPA AT 23N 166E WEST SLOWLY.

Enceladus