孟加拉湾西部低压01B(BOB 07) - 北印新风季首旋

大水台6

91B INVEST 250930 0000 15.5N 87.0E IO 15 0

pocketbox

ABIO10 PGTW 300600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN REISSUED/300600ZSEP2025-010600ZOCT2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
...
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.6N
89.6E, APPROXIMATELY 298 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION WITH
AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE MSI ALSO REVEALS BROAD
CONVECTIVE BANDING WITHIN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WITH
STRONG EASTERLIES ALOFT. A 090930Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS STRONG WINDS (20-
25 KTS) TO THE WEST OF THE BROAD CONVECTION CENTER. ANALYSIS REVEALS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C).
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE STEADY DEVELOPMENT WITH A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
DEVELOPMENT WHILE ECMWF SHOWS THE SYSTEM STRUGGLING TO CONSOLIDATE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B. (2).//
NNNN

Ragasa

TCFA

WTIO21 PGTW 301800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91B)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.0N 87.0E TO 20.0N 84.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 301730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.8N 86.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.6N 89.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 86.7E, APPROXIMATELY 265 NM
SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 301546Z ASCAT-B PASS INDICATES A SWATH OF 35 KNOT
NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF
5-10 KNOTS, EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 28-29 C. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THE SYSTEM HAVING A
GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH STEADY DEVELOPMENT AND
INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 12-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
011800Z.//
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VistaBSOD

北印终于开季，九月空旋终迎曙光

普通的台风迷

已编号01B。

ygsj24

WTIO31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PERAL HARBOR HI/301752ZSEP2025/
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   010600Z --- NEAR 15.9N 86.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 86.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z --- 17.2N 86.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z --- 18.5N 85.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z --- 19.8N 84.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z --- 21.1N 84.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 86.4E.
01OCT25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 416 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 010600Z
IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.
2.THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 301800).//
NNNN

1. WDIO31 PGTW 010900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR
   
4. 001//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 15.9N 86.5E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 416 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 13 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY
    
18. EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH CONVECTION
    
19. DISPLACED FAR TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 010327Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE
    
20. REVEALS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS (30-35
    
21. KTS) CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
    
22. INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE
    
23. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C),
    
24. OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A BROAD
    
25. WIND FIELD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
    
26. ON THE FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN ANIMATED
    
27. IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
    
28. CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED 010327Z ASCAT DATA.
    
29. 
    
30. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 010327Z METOP-B SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
31. 
    
32. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST
    
33. OF THE SYSTEM
    
34. 
    
35. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
36.    PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
37.    KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS
    
38.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 23 KTS AT 010600Z
    
39. 
    
40. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
    
41.    VWS: 20-25 KTS
    
42.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
43.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
    
44.    OTHER FACTORS: VERY BROAD WIND FIELD
    
45. 
    
46. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
47.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
48.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
49.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
50. 
    
51. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
52. 
    
53. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    
54. MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
    
55. 
    
56. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B IS FORECAST TO TRACK
    
57. NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, UNDER THE
    
58. INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO ITS EAST. 01B WILL REMAIN IN A MARGINAL
    
59. ENVIRONMENT LEADING UP TO LANDFALL, WHICH WILL STALL INTENSIFICATION
    
60. GREATER THAN GALE-FORCE WINDS. THE WIND FIELD IS ANTICIPATED TO
    
61. REMAIN BROAD, FURTHER HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT, TC 01B IS
    
62. EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OF 35 KTS UNTIL LANDFALL IN
    
63. NORTHEASTERN INDIA. AFTER LANDFALL, DISSIPATION IS IMMINENT.
    
64. 
    
65. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
    
66. AGREEMENT THAT 01B WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AND MAKE
    
67. LANDFALL JUST BEFORE TAU 36, SUPPORTING THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
    
68. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN STRONG
    
69. AGREEMENT THAT 01B WILL PEAK AT 35 KTS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST
    
70. FOLLOWS SUIT, MAINTAINING 35 KTS THROUGH TAU 24 BEFORE WEAKENING OVER
    
71. LAND.
    
72. 
    
73. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
74.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
75.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
    
76. NNNN

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WTIO31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 002   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   011200Z --- NEAR 16.7N 86.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 86.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z --- 18.2N 85.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z --- 19.4N 85.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z --- 20.8N 84.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 86.2E.
01OCT25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 373 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 011200Z
IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.//
NNNN

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ygsj24

WTIO31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 003   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   011800Z --- NEAR 16.7N 85.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 85.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z --- 18.1N 84.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z --- 19.9N 84.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z --- 21.2N 82.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 85.4E.
01OCT25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 011800Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.
//
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1. WDIO31 PGTW 012100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR
   
4. 003//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 16.7N 85.5E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 390 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
    
18. NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR SHOVING THE DEEP CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE LOW
    
19. LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), IMPEDING DEVELOPMENT OF TC 01B. AN
    
20. EARLIER SCATTEROMETRY PASS AND A CURRENT JTWC DVORAK USING THE SHEAR
    
21. TECHNIQUE AND NETTING A T2.0 GAVE AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF 30-35KTS
    
22. FOR THE SYSTEM, BUT RECENT SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS THE LLCC
    
23. TUCKING BACK UNDER THE CONVECTION AND THE MOST RECENT DVORAK CAME
    
24. OUT AT T2.5, SUPPORTING THE CURRENT INTENSITY. THE SCATTEROMETRY
    
25. ALSO SHOWS A LOP-SIDED SYSTEM WITH ALL THE WINDFIELDS EXCEEDING
    
26. 30KT LYING OVER ONLY THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE UPSTREAM
    
27. ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE SYSTEM AND THE COAST IS MODERATELY MORE
    
28. FAVORABLE. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS:  A 011421Z SCATTEROMETRY IMAGE.
    
29. 
    
30. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A MID AND UPPER LEVEL EXTENSION OVER
    
31. THE EASTERN BAY OF BENGAL IS FORCING THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE INDIAN
    
32. COAST.
    
33. 
    
34. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
35.    PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
36.    KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS
    
37.    DEMS: T1.5 - 25 KTS
    
38.    CIMSS SATCON: 40 KTS AT 011926Z
    
39.    CIMSS ADT: 31 KTS AT 011800Z
    
40.    CIMSS AIDT: 28 KTS AT 011700Z
    
41.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 29 KTS AT 011900Z
    
42. 
    
43. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
44.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
    
45.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
46.    OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
    
47. 
    
48. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
49.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
50.    INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
    
51.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
52. 
    
53. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
54. 
    
55. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
56. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
57. 
    
58. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B WILL TRACK THROUGH AN
    
59. AREA OF SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS AND LOWER WINDSHEAR TO THE NORTH,
    
60. KEEPING THE SYSTEM VIABLE THROUGH LANDFALL. IT IS EXPECTED TO COME
    
61. ASHORE SOUTH OF BRAHMAPUR, NEAR PALASA. WINDFIELDS WILL REMAIN
    
62. UNBALANCED, WITH NO GALE FORCE EASTERLIES LIKELY OVER THE POLEWARD
    
63. SEMICIRCLE.  
    
64. 
    
65. MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS EXCELLENT AND IN TIGHT
    
66. AGREEMENT AND THE JTWC FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
    
67. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS FLAT OR DECLINING, BUT THE FORECAST INTENSITY
    
68. IS HELD STEADY DUE TO THE LOWER VWS AND WARMER SEA SURFACE
    
69. TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM.
    
70. 
    
71. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
72.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
73.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
    
74. NNNN

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