墨西哥西南99E - 12.4N 102.0W - NHC:90%

大水台6

EP, 99, 2025100218,   , BEST,   0, 124N, 1020W,  20, 1009, DB

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1. Offshore of the Southwestern Coast of Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with a
trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by the weekend while the system moves generally
west-northwestward, remaining parallel to but offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico. Interests along the southwestern coast
of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Ragasa

TCFA


WTPN21 PHNC 021930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.3N 101.8W TO 13.7N 104.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 021800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.4N 102.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99E) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 101.4W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 102.0W,
APPROXIMATELY 1468 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
BUILDING OVER THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF 99E WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (27-30 C). DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON A STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND ON A
SIMILAR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
031930Z.//
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