ABPW10 PGTW 122200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/122200Z-130600ZOCT2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/121951ZOCT2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 12OCT25 1800Z, TYPHOON 29W (NAKRI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N
138.3E, APPROXIMATELY 188 NM SOUTH OF CAMP FUJI, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS GUSTING TO 85 KNOTS. SEE REF A
(WTPN31 PGTW 122100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.8NN
148.6E, APPROXIMATELY 507 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED CIRCULATION
WITH WEAK FLARING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THIS AREA IS
MODERATELY UNFAVORABLE WITH VERY WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY HIGH (20-25 KTS)
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL DEVELOP ALONG A NORTH-WESTWARD TRACK
WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER TIME, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ECMWF
LACKING DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN TIP OF
LUZON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 17 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).//
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As of 2:00 AM today, 13 October 2025, the Low Pressure area (LPA 10e) is being monitored OUTSIDE the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and has a "LOW" chance to develop into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.
All are advised to monitor updates from DOST-PAGASA.
As of 8:00 AM today, 13 October 2025, the Low Pressure area (LPA 10e) is being monitored OUTSIDE the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and has a "MEDIUM" chance to develop into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.
All are advised to monitor updates from DOST-PAGASA.
ABPW10 PGTW 130600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/130600Z-140600ZOCT2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130151ZOCT2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 13OCT25 0000Z, TYPHOON 29W (NAKRI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.1N
140.3E, APPROXIMATELY 135 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, AND
HAD TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS GUSTING TO 90
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 130300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
5.8NN 148.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 146.2E, APPROXIMATELY 478 NM SOUTH
OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS A 130433
GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A POORLY ORGANIZED BROAD AREA OF
TURNING WITH WEAK FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THIS AREA IS MODERATELY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, MODERATE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION
(96W) WILL DEVELOP ALONG A NORTH-WESTWARD TRACK WITH GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION OVER TIME, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ECMWF WHICH LACKS
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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发表于 2025-10-12 17:49
发表于 2025-10-13 11:19
