向风群岛以东98L - 11.7N 49.9W - NHC:0%

大水台6

AL, 98, 2025101812,   , BEST,   0, 117N,  499W,  30, 1011, DB

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1. East of the Windward Islands and the Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave located about 800 miles east of the Windward Islands
continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms.  
Gradual development of this system is possible during the next
several days while it moves generally westward at around 20 mph.  
Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring heavy
rainfall and gusty winds to the Windward Islands Sunday and Sunday
night, then move across the Caribbean Sea through much of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 181751
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

East of the Windward Islands and the Caribbean Sea (AL98):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands continues to produce a broad area of showers and
thunderstorms. Earlier satellite wind data indicated the system
lacks a closed circulation, but is producing winds of 30 to 35 mph
to the north of the wave axis. Environmental conditions appear
marginally conductive for slow development over the next couple of
days as the system moves quickly westward at 20 to 25 mph, crossing
the Windward Islands and entering the Caribbean Sea by early next
week. By the middle of next week, the system is expected to slow
down over the central Caribbean Sea, where environmental conditions
could become more favorable for further development. Regardless of
development, this system is expected to bring heavy rainfall and
gusty winds to the Windward Islands Sunday and Sunday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

North Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is located several hundred miles
northeast of Bermuda.  There is a slight chance that the system
could develop some subtropical characteristics over the next day or
so before it turns northeastward into cooler ocean waters on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

ygsj24

218
ABNT20 KNHC 182341
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

East of the Windward Islands and the Caribbean Sea (AL98):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands continues to produce a broad area of showers and
thunderstorms.  This system is expected to move quickly westward at
20 to 25 mph, crossing the Windward Islands during the next day or
so.  By the middle to latter part of next week, environmental
conditions could become more favorable for development, and a
tropical depression could form while the system slows down over the
central Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system is
expected to bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the Windward
Islands Sunday into Monday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

North Atlantic:
A non-tropical, complex area of low pressure is located several
hundred miles northeast of Bermuda.  Further development of this
system is not expected due to cooling ocean waters while it moves
northeastward over the North Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart

pocketbox

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. East of the Windward Islands and the Caribbean Sea (AL98):
A tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles east of the
Windward Islands is producing a large and persistent area of showers
and thunderstorms.  Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that
the system still lacks a closed circulation, but is producing winds
of 30 to 35 mph north and east of the wave axis.  Environmental
conditions are expected to limit development during the next couple
of days as the system moves quickly westward at 20 to 25 mph,
bringing heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the Windward Islands
beginning later today and continuing through Monday morning.  By the
middle to latter part of the week, environmental conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical
depression could form while the system slows down over the central
Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.



Forecaster Jelsema

ygsj24

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 191144
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Near the Windward Islands and the Caribbean Sea (AL98):
A tropical wave currently located near the Windward Islands is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall
and gusty winds are expected today continuing through Monday morning
across portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands as the system
moves quickly westward at 20 to 25 mph into the eastern Caribbean
Sea. Additional development is forecast to be limited over the next
day or two, due to the fast forward motion of the wave. The system
is then expected to slow down over the central Caribbean Sea during
the middle portion of the week, where environmental conditions could
become more conducive for development. A tropical depression could
from over the central Caribbean Sea by the middle to latter portion
of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin