菲律宾以东2525号热带风暴“海鸥”(31W.Kalmaegi) - 数值支持发展

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实时云图

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编扰资讯

98W INVEST 251029 0600 7.6N 144.1E WPAC 15 1008

Ck.

补

pocketbox

ABPW10 PGTW 300600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/300600Z-310600ZOCT2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.1N
142.8E, APPROXIMATELY 313 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS OVER
A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(30 C), AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SHOW 98W INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH GFS BEING THE MORE
INTENSE MODEL. WHILE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 98W
INTENSIFYING AND MOVING WEST.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

Enceladus

平平无奇的路径

桑美和伊欧凯

Enceladus 发表于 2025-10-30 15:09
平平无奇的路径

标准的菲中——南海——越南路径，相当于14年海鸥向南平移6-10个纬度

Ck.

Enceladus 发表于 2025-10-30 15:09
平平无奇的路径

强度可以稍稍观望一下

pocketbox

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 07N 143E ALMOST STATIONARY.

1996莎莉

越南中部刚刚经历历史性洪水，又来台风登陆，祸不单行

Ck.

1996莎莉 发表于 2025-10-30 17:16
越南中部刚刚经历历史性洪水，又来台风登陆，祸不单行

今年越南本就惨，博罗依麦德姆重创已经很惨了

恒信金仁

桑美和伊欧凯 发表于 2025-10-30 16:31
标准的菲中——南海——越南路径，相当于14年海鸥向南平移6-10个纬度

海燕不北抬的路径