ABPW10 PGTW 310600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/310600ZOCT2025-010600ZNOV2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.1N 142.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 142.3E, APPROXIMATELY
259 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC).ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS), WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW.GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW 98W INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS
WITH GFS BEING THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL. WHILE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRANSITS ALONG A WESTWARD
TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.6N 152.8E, APPROXIMATELY 108 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY ALONG THE DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS),
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT.GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 99W WILL CONTINUE WEST WITH GFS AND GEFS SHOWING A MORE SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
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发表于 2025-10-31 05:56
