ABPW10 PGTW 030600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/030600Z-040600ZNOV2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030151ZNOV2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 03NOV25 0000Z, TYPHOON 31W (KALMAEGI) WAS LOCATED NEAR
10.5N 128.9E, APPROXIMATELY 368 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SONSOROL, AND HAD
TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS GUSTING TO 85 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 030300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.5N
147.0E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK. MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 030400Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH LOCALIZED BURSTS OF
CONVECTION WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE
EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 5-10 KTS,
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE
ON THE STEADY CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
WELL AS A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. GFS AND NAVGEM ARE MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPMENT THAN ECMWF AND THE ENSEMBLES. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
As of 2:00 PM today, 03 November 2025, Typhoon "TINO" {Int'l name "KALMAEGI"} is still being monitored INSIDE the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
Meanwhile, a Low Pressure Area (LPA 11a) is being monitored OUTSIDE PAR and has a “MEDIUM” potential of developing into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.
All are advised to monitor updates from DOST-PAGASA.
ABPW10 PGTW 031400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/031400Z-040600ZNOV2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030751ZNOV2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 03NOV25 0600Z, TYPHOON 31W (KALMAEGI) WAS LOCATED NEAR
10.4N 127.7E, APPROXIMATELY 466 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 100 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 030900) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
8.5N 147.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 145.5E, APPROXIMATELY 268 NM
SOUTH OF GUAM. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH SCATTERED BURSTS OF
CONVECTION WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. 031127Z AND 031042Z
ASCAT PASSES SHOW A BROAD AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF
25 KT WINDS WITHIN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. WINDS TO BOTH THE NORTH AND
WEST ARE MUCH WEAKER THOUGH (10-15 KTS) AND DO NOT CREATE A DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) YET. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE
EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10-15
KTS, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C. GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE ON THE STEADY CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS WELL AS A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. GFS, NAVGEM, AND
GEFS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM COMPARED TO
ECMWF AND ECENS, WHICH DEPICT A SLOWER CONSOLIDATION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN
As of 8:00 PM today, 03 November 2025, Typhoon "TINO" {Int'l name "KALMAEGI"} is still being monitored INSIDE the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
Meanwhile, the Low Pressure Area (LPA 11a) is being monitored OUTSIDE PAR and has a “HIGH” potential of developing into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.
All are advised to monitor updates from DOST-PAGASA.
发表于 2025-11-3 07:10
