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本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-11-27 12:00 编辑
WTIO32 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (FIVE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/262051ZNOV2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 6.6N 81.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.6N 81.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 7.4N 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 8.1N 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 8.8N 80.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 9.6N 80.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 11.6N 80.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 13.3N 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 14.0N 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 6.8N 81.2E.
27NOV25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1046
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 270000Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (SENYAR) FINAL WARNING (WTIO31 PGTW).
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 262100).//
NNNN
- WDIO32 PGTW 270300
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (FIVE) WARNING NR
- 001//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 6.6N 81.2E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 1046 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY
- ORGANIZING SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A FULLY
- OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH
- TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED SHORTWAVE INFRARED
- SATELLITE LOOP, WHILE THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED
- WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 261940Z GCOMW1 AMSR2 AND A 261820Z
- OCEANSAT-3 PASSES SHOWING DISTINCT BANDS OF 30-35 KT WINDS,
- PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION, AS
- WELL AS TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE LLCC ASSESSED OVER LAND, THE
- ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ANALYZED AS MARGINAL, WITH LOW (10-15
- KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW. AS
- THE CONVECTIVE BANDS EXTEND WELL OVER WATER, THE WARM (28-29 C) SEA
- SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE ALSO BENEFICIAL, ESPECIALLY ONCE THE
- SYSTEM RE-EMERGES OVER WATER.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: A 261940Z GCOMW1 AMSR2 AND A 261820Z
- OCEANSAT-3 PASSES
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK RIDGING TO THE EAST
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
- KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
- DEMS: T1.5 - 25 KTS
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 29 KTS AT 270000Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
- VWS: 10-15 KTS
- SST: OVER LAND
- OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
- INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
- INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
- MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 05B IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH
- ITS LIFESPAN. DURING THE INITIAL 48 HOURS THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO
- BE LOCATED OVER LAND, AS THE SYSTEM IS MAINLY STEERED BY WEAK
- RIDGING TO THE EAST. THE CIRCULATION IS BROAD, WITH 34 KT WIND
- RADII EXTENDING WELL OUTSIDE OF THE PERIMETER OF SRI LANKA. AS
- SUCH, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY, WHILE THE LLCC
- TRANSLATES ACROSS THE ISLAND. AROUND TAU 48, TC 05B IS EXPECTED TO
- RE-EMERGE OVER WATER JUST NORTH OR NORTHEAST OF SRI LANKA.
- SIMULTANEOUSLY, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) INITIALLY CENTERED TO THE
- NORTH WILL RETROGRADE EASTWARD AND ASSUME THE PRIMARY STEERING,
- PUSHING THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH. THIS WILL OPEN A SHORT WINDOW OF
- OPPORTUNITY FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM
- APPROACHES LAND, THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF TERRAIN INTERACTION,
- COMBINED WITH INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR, AS WELL AS DRY AIR
- ENTRAINMENT WILL RESULT IN A WEAKENING TREND. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
- DISSIPATING AS SOON AS IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
- COAST OF INDIA, WHICH IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED BETWEEN TAUS 72 AND 96.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL SHORT-TERM TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
- VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AS WITNESSED BY A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 65-75
- NM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY MINOR OUTLIER IS
- GALWEM, WHICH PREDICTS A MORE EASTERN TRACK, WHICH EXTENDS THE
- CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE TO 100 NM. OVERALL
- TRACK FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, DUE TO
- UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL POSITION, AS WELL AS THE
- ALONG-TRACK SPREAD INCREASING TO 135 NM BY TAU 96 INDICATING
- UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO THE TIMELINE OF RE-EMERGENCE OVER WATER
- AND IN RETURN, LANDFALL OVER INDIA. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO
- ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, AS ALL CONSENSUS MEMBERS INDICATE
- MAINTAINED INTENSITY, WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHT INCREASES THOUGH
- TAU 60, FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TREND AFTERWARDS, AND DISSIPATION
- BETWEEN TAUS 96 AND 120. THE CONSENSUS ENVELOPE SPREAD IS 25 KTS,
- MAINLY DUE TO NAVGEM-DRIVEN COAMPS-TC INDICATING PEAK INTENSITY OF
- 60 KTS. OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL
- CONSENSUS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
- TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
- NNNN
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发表于 2025-11-24 20:39
