LOW - 苏门答腊岛西南91S - 4.1S 98.6E

Ragasa

91S INVEST 251206 1800 5.3S 92.2E SHEM 15 1009

NaTyphoon

1. SH, 91, 2025120606,   , BEST,   0,  53S,  909E,  10, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,   S,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
   
2. SH, 91, 2025120612,   , BEST,   0,  53S,  915E,  15, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,   S,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
   
3. SH, 91, 2025120618,   , BEST,   0,  53S,  922E,  15, 1010, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,   80,  10,   0,   0,   P,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
   
4. SH, 91, 2025120700,   , BEST,   0,  53S,  926E,  15, 1010, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,   80,  10,   0,   0,   S,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,

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菌菇月亮

EC貌似不是特别看好，FNV3反应强烈的应该是这个（不太确定

Ragasa

ABIO10 PGTW 100800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/100800Z-101800ZDEC2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.1S
98.6E, APPROXIMATELY 570 NM NORTHWEST OF CHIRSTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 092326Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING, POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE NORTH OF THE LLC
AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 25-
30 KNOTS, GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST) OF 28-29 C. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91S
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
TRACKS SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF SOUTHERN SUMATRA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
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