‌新喀里多尼亚以西热带低压06F(16P)

Ragasa

99P INVEST 260120 0000 14.8S 151.3E SHEM 15 0

红豆棒冰冰

ABPW10 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/200300Z-200600ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191951ZJAN2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191221ZJAN2026//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 19JAN26 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (NOKAEN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 128.1E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW
192100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.3N
146.0E, APPROXIMATELY 356 NM WEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS), WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING 92W,
HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE MORE AGREEABLE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF
DEVELOPMENT. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE THAT 92W
WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.1S 158.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5S 162.5E, APPROXIMATELY 278 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC), WITH DEEP AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER.
A 191048Z METOP-C ASCAT REVEALS 18-23 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE
EASTERN QUADRANT OF 94P. IN ADDITION, A LARGE SWATH OF WINDS UP TO 25
KTS ARE OBSERVED 112 NM AND DISLOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
ASSESSED CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (10-15 KT), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C), AND
WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS SHOW ONGOING SUPPORT FOR 94P TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA OF 35
KTS IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 993 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B
(WTPS21 PGTW 191230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
     (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.8S
151.3E, APPROXIMATELY 346 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE AGREEANCE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS, WITH GFS AS THE
SOLE OUTLIER INDICATING DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT 99P WILL TRACK SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREAS IN PARA. 1.B.(1) AND PARA.
2.B.(2) .////
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 03Z分析T1.0

TPPS10 PGTW 200322
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99P (NE OF WILLIS ISLAND)
B. 20/0250Z
C. 15.08S
D. 151.95E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 0.25 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. BOTH MET AND PT YIELD 1.0. DBO
DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   LINDGREN

红豆棒冰冰

ABPW10 PGTW 200600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/200600Z-210600ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200151ZJAN2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191291ZJAN2026//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 20JAN26 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 17.3N 129.1E, APPROXIMATELY 494 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 200300) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
6.3N 146.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 145.3E, APPROXIMATELY 411 NM
SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
BROAD AND DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION
ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR POLEWARD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(20 TO 25 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C). ECENS
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OUT OF THE ENSEMBLE MODELS, HOWEVER, THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE MUCH MORE HESITANT ON THE CONSOLIDATION OF
92W. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 92W TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
19.4S 162.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5S 162.5E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A HIGHLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH WEAK FLARING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO MODERATE POLEWARD UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KTS),
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (27 TO 28 C). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON 94P TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A BROAD AND ELONGATED WIND FIELD AS IT ATTEMPTS TO
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
SEE REF B (WTPS21 PGTW 191230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.8S 151.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 151.3E, APPROXIMATELY 117 NM
NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR
EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(15 TO 20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C).
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON 99P TRACKING GENERALLY EASTWARD WITH MARGINAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 06Z分析维持T1.0

TPPS10 PGTW 200618
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99P (NE OF WILLIS ISLAND)
B. 20/0530Z
C. 14.66S
D. 152.67E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. BOTH MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   LINDGREN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 09Z分析维持T1.0

TPPS10 PGTW 200916
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99P (E OF WILLIS ISLAND)
B. 20/0830Z
C. 15.07S
D. 153.41E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. BOTH MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   20/0621Z  15.27S  153.27E  SSMS
   LINDGREN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 12Z分析无法找到中心

TPPS10 PGTW 201221
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99P (E OF WILLIS ISLAND)
B. 20/1130Z
C. XX.XX
D. XXX.XX
E. N/A/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT BE
FOUND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 15Z分析仍然无法找到中心

TPPS10 PGTW 201508
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99P (E OF WILLIS ISLAND)
B. 20/1430Z
C. XX.XX
D. XXX.XX
E. N/A/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT BE
FOUND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER

红豆棒冰冰

ABPW10 PGTW 201800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/201800Z-210600ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201351ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 20JAN26 1200Z, TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 17.7N 131.9E, APPROXIMATELY 610 NM NORTHWEST OF YAP, AND HAD
TRACKED EASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 201500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
6.3N 146.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.7N 146.6E, APPROXIMATELY 316 NM WEST
OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND
DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25 KTS),
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C). ECENS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE OUT OF THE ENSEMBLE MODELS, HOWEVER, THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE MUCH MORE HESITANT ON THE CONSOLIDATION OF 92W. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW 92W TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.8S 151.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 155.6E, APPROXIMATELY 328 NM
EAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
REVEALS A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC), EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO INVEST 94P. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C), AND
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE CONSERVATIVE IN
DEVELOPMENT OF 99P, AND ONLY THE GFS SUPPORTS INTENSIFICATION ABOVE 35
KNOTS PRIOR TO REACHING NEW CALEDONIA. BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS
ENSEMBLES HOWEVER, SUPPORT STRENGTHENING AND INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEANCE THAT 99P WITH TAKE
A GENERAL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
19.5S 162.5E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.
DISSIPATED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(2).//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 18Z分析仍然无法找到中心

TPPS10 PGTW 201845
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99P (E OF WILLIS ISLAND)
B. 20/1730Z
C. XX.XX
D. XXX.XX
E. N/A/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT BE
FOUND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   CANTU