TCFA - 爪哇岛以南热带低压16U(91S)

大水台6

sh912026 INVEST 20260121 0600 -10.3 116.1 S DB 15 1009

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Tropical Low 16U
Tropical Low (16U) may develop overnight or Thursday to the northwest of the Kimberley coast and move towards the coast.

• Once formed, 16U is expected to move to the south or southeast towards the Kimberley coast and may cross later Friday or over the weekend.
• There is a Moderate risk from Friday to Sunday of 16U developing into a tropical cyclone. There is considerable variation in the speed of movement towards the coast. An earlier crossing would mean it may not have sufficient time to strengthen into a tropical cyclone, whereas if the crossing is delayed this would allow for a stronger system to develop.
• Regardless, the low could still cause gale force winds and heavy rainfall over coastal parts of the northwest Kimberley. Heavy rainfall may continue in its vicinity as it moves inland during the weekend and into early next week.
• Residents of the Kimberley coast are advised to monitor forecasts and updates.
  

Last updated
33 minutes ago, 08:59 am UTC

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Tropical Low 16U

null (None)

1 (Very Low)

10 (Low)

25 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

45 (Moderate)

35 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

10 (Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

null (None)

null (None)

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 09Z分析T1.0

TPXS12 PGTW 210919
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91S (SE OF SUMBA)
B. 21/0830Z
C. 10.30S
D. 116.10E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH OVERCAST LESS THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF 1.0. BOTH
MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   LINDGREN

Ragasa

ABIO10 PGTW 211000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/211000Z-211800ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210151ZJAN2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210752ZJAN2026//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 21JAN26 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 27.6S 57.3E, APPROXIMATELY 440 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ST DENIS,
AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 210300) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) AT 21JAN26 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EWETSE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 24.3S 43.4E, APPROXIMATELY 217 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND,
AND HAD TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS32 PGTW 210900) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.5S
116.8E, APPROXIMATELY 549 NM NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGHLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG WESTWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW,
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KTS), AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON 91S TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED MEDIUM
AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 12Z分析维持T1.0

TPXS12 PGTW 211220
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91S (SE OF SUMBA)
B. 21/1130Z
C. 10.25S
D. 117.40E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH OVERCAST LESS THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF 1.0. MET
AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 15Z分析维持T1.0

TPXS12 PGTW 211517
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91S (SW OF SUMBA)
B. 21/1430Z
C. 10.94S
D. 118.02E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES LOCATED WITHIN 75NM OF COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.0. MET
AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER

红豆棒冰冰

ABIO10 PGTW 211800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/211800Z-
221800ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211351ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 21JAN26 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EWETSE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 23.9S 44.1E, APPROXIMATELY 238 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND,
AND HAD TRACKED EAST- NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 211500) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.5S 116.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7S 117.4E, APPROXIMATELY 518 NM
NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A FULLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DISPLACED FROM THE
PRIMARY AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION TO THE WEST, A 211409Z ASCAT PASS
DEPICTS A RELATIVELY BROAD AREA OF CIRCULATION WITH 15-20 KT WINDS ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGHLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG WESTWARD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KTS), AND VERY WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THE
AREA OF CONVECTION (91S) TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT CONTINUES TO
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 18Z分析升至T1.5

TPXS12 PGTW 211822
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91S (SW OF SUMBA)
B. 21/1730Z
C. 11.02S
D. 118.48E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF
1.5. MET YIELDS 1.0. PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   TIMMERMAN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 21Z分析维持T1.5

TPXS12 PGTW 212118
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91S (SW OF SUMBA)
B. 21/2030Z
C. 11.15S
D. 118.85E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF
1.5. MET YIELDS 1.5. PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   TIMMERMAN

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IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 8:47 am WST on Thursday 22 January 2026

Headline:
Tropical Low (16U) has a high risk of developing into a tropical cyclone as it approaches the northwest Kimberley Coast on Saturday.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None.

Watch Zone
Mitchell Plateau to Bidyadanga, including Broome and Derby.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Low 16U at 8:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 35 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 95 kilometres of 12.1 degrees South 118.1 degrees East, estimated to be 790 kilometres northwest of Broome and 830 kilometres northwest of Derby.

Movement: south southeast at 7 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Low (16U) lies over waters to the northwest of the Kimberley coast. The system is forecast to intensify further as it tracks southeast today and on Friday, towards the northwest Kimberley coast.

16U is expected to reach tropical cyclone strength overnight Friday or early Saturday morning, before crossing the northwest Kimberley coast during Saturday as a category 1 system. During Sunday, 16U is forecast to track through the Kimberley as a tropical low.

Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are possible between Mitchell Plateau to Broome from late Friday or early Saturday morning. Gales may extend south to Bidyadanga later Saturday if the system takes a track further west.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible from late Friday for the northwest Kimberley district, including the coast and adjacent inland areas during Saturday.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm AWST Thursday 22 January.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	8 am January 22	tropical low	12.1S	118.1E	95
+6hr	2 pm January 22	tropical low	12.5S	118.5E	115
+12hr	8 pm January 22	tropical low	12.9S	118.9E	130
+18hr	2 am January 23	tropical low	13.4S	119.3E	145
+24hr	8 am January 23	tropical low	13.8S	119.9E	145
+36hr	8 pm January 23	tropical low	14.8S	121.1E	160
+48hr	8 am January 24	1	16.0S	122.7E	165
+60hr	8 pm January 24	1	17.0S	123.6E	190
+72hr	8 am January 25	tropical low	18.0S	123.9E	210