马达加斯加东南副热带风暴第14号“朱卢卡”(Juluka)

qiqi

WTIO24 FMEE 271237 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/04/2026
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 27/04/2026 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SUBTROPICAL STORM 14 (JULUKA) 1000 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 34.6 S / 48.1 E
(THIRTY FOUR    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 30
NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/04/28 AT 00 UTC:
37.5 S / 50.9 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 170 NM SE: 290 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2026/04/28 AT 12 UTC:
43.3 S / 54.4 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 410 NM SE: 245 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 305 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM, UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION. FURTHER
INFORMATIONS WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE
HIGHT SEAS FOR METAREA VII, ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES
OF SOUTH-AFRICA (FQZA31 FAPR).=

红豆棒冰冰

有趣，MFR此前的报文显示10Z仍为TS，不知道是笔误还是两小时后就转化为了SS

AWIO20 FMEE 271155
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 27/04/2026 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY
Nil, but system JULUKA will be monitored by RSMC La Réunion at 12 UTC.
PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
The basin exhibits a poorly defined near-equatorial trough (NET) configuration around 5°S and between 55°E and 75°E.
Convective activity is generally weak to moderate north of the NET and east of the Chagos Islands in the area where the
trade wind flow slows down. Outside the TPE, convective activity is also moderate to strong near Subtropical Storm
JULUKA, which is moving south of Madagascar near 34°S and 48°E.
A westward wind anomaly is expected to gradually set in along the equator over the next few days as the MJO moves
into our basin. Conditions should thus become more favorable for cyclogenesis, with the TPE becoming better defined.
An interaction between Kelvin and Rossby waves could also intensify vorticity and convection within this TPE, creating
conditions more conducive to cyclogenesis by the end of the week.
Tropical Storm JULUKA :
Information at 10 UTC :
Estimated position: 34.4S / 47.9
Movement : SSE, 07 kt
Maximum wind speed (averaged over 10 minutes): 35 kt
Estimated central pressure: 1000 hPa
For further information, please refer to bulletins WTIO24 and WTIO30 which will be issued at 12 UTC.
Development of a tropical storm is not expected over the next 5 days.
10-day outlook:
As the MJO moves across the Indian Ocean, the pattern is expected to continue improving in early May, with increasing
convergence within the NET. Consequently, models suggest a low risk of cyclogenesis over the central basin during the
week of May 4th but this risk is currently negligible.

Js_Mitari

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