坦桑尼亚以东热带气旋第10号“希达亚”(23S.Hidaya) - 风眼开出，西行登陆坦桑尼亚 - JTWC:80KT

Meow

编扰资讯

90S INVEST 240426 1200 4.2S 53.6E SHEM 15 1007

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GFS 18Z决定报及系集部分成员均支持发展

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GFS 00Z决定报及系集部分成员继续支持发展

karding

Clockwise circulation north of Madagascar :
The latest surface observations (Ascat/HY/OceanSat satellite images) show no evidence of a closed
low level circulation in the area, with predominantly southerly to south-easterly winds south of 5S.
However, an area of mid-tropospheric vorticity is clearly visible on satellite images east of Aldabra
near 9S 50E. This upper-level cyclonic circulation should disappear in the next few hours.
Over the next few days, probably in relation to the wave activity, a closed surface circulation could
gradually develop, thanks to a temporary surge of monsoon flow, north of Cap d'Ambre. On
Wednesday, while the system could benefit from excellent upper-level divergence with two outflow
channels (northwest and south), the deep westerly shear should strengthen, along with a gradual
decrease in convergence on the equatorial side. Despite this seemingly only partially favorable
environment for development, the latest deterministic and ensemble models suggest a significant
risk of cyclogenesis as early as Tuesday or Wednesday, with a southward track towards Cap
d'Ambre. At longer range, among the intensifying scenarios, two stand out on either side of Cap
d'Ambre. However, given the wide dispersion of the models and the many uncertainties, it is still
too early to favour one or another. It is therefore still too early to accurately anticipate possible
threats.
The risk for the development of a moderate tropical storm, is very low on Monday, low on
Tuesday and moderate from Wednesday, north of Madagascar.

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ECMWF 00Z决定报及系集部分成员亦支持成旋

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今天下午ASCAT风场扫描

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GFS 06Z决定报及系集部分成员继续支持发展

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ECMWF 12Z决定报不看好显著加强，但系集部分成员仍然支持发展

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GFS 18Z决定报及系集部分成员继续支持发展

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GFS 00Z决定报及系集部分成员继续支持发展