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楼主: 红豆棒冰冰

南半球各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖(2023年7月-2024年6月)

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 楼主| 发表于 2024-4-10 20:30 | 显示全部楼层
GFS 06Z预报4月中下旬南太将趋于活跃,可能有多个热带系统发展




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惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
 楼主| 发表于 2024-4-11 14:56 | 显示全部楼层
GFS 00Z预报4月中下旬南太双旋共舞,强度可观





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惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
 楼主| 发表于 2024-4-11 17:38 | 显示全部楼层
Forecast description
Tropical Low 12U
The risk of 12U forming and developing has decreased.
  • Recent model guidance has reduced the chance of 12U forming and developing in the Arafura Sea over the weekend.
  • The TC ratings for 12U have been downgraded to Very Low.
  • Since the risk of this low developing has decreased and as such this disturbance will not appear on subsequent forecasts. The situation will continue to be monitored and updated here if required.
Last updated
35 minutes ago, 08:49 am UTC


Tropical lows
Today
12:00 pm
Tomorrow
12:00 am
Tomorrow
12:00 pm
Sat 13 Apr
12:00 am
Sat 13 Apr
12:00 pm
Sun 14 Apr
12:00 am
Sun 14 Apr
12:00 pm
Mon 15 Apr
12:00 am
Mon 15 Apr
12:00 pm
Tue 16 Apr
12:00 am
Tue 16 Apr
12:00 pm
Wed 17 Apr
12:00 am
Wed 17 Apr
12:00 pm
Thu 18 Apr
12:00 am
Thu 18 Apr
12:00 pm
Tropical Cyclone Paul 13U
95%
High
55%
High
30%
Moderate
15%
Low
Less than 5%
Very Low
None
None
None
None
None
None
None
None
None
None
Tropical Low 12U
None
None
None
Less than 5%
Very Low
Less than 5%
Very Low
Less than 5%
Very Low
Less than 5%
Very Low
Less than 5%
Very Low
Less than 5%
Very Low
Less than 5%
Very Low
Less than 5%
Very Low
None
None
None
None

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惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
 楼主| 发表于 2024-4-11 20:39 | 显示全部楼层
GFS 06Z继续报出4月中下旬南太双旋共舞,强度可观




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惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
 楼主| 发表于 2024-4-12 15:08 | 显示全部楼层
GFS 00Z预报12U在低纬持续西行并发展成旋


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惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
 楼主| 发表于 2024-4-12 16:54 | 显示全部楼层
Forecast description
Tropical Low 12U
Tropical Low 12U is a weak circulation north of the Northern Territory which will move westwards.
  • Tropical Low 12U lives in the Arafura Sea, to the north of the North Territory.
  • 12U will move west, remaining north of the Northern Territory and could reach East Timor on Sunday or Monday.
  • 12U is unlikely to strengthen into a tropical cyclone.
  • There is a chance the low dissipates over the next few days, becoming more likely next week when it is over the Indonesian archipelago.
Last updated
32 minutes ago, 08:22 am UTC
Tropical Low 14U
Tropical Low 14U could move west into the northern Coral Sea next week
  • 14U is likely to form north of Vanuatu early week, then move west into the Coral Sea from Wednesday.
  • There is a small chance it could strengthen into a tropical cyclone late next week.
  • Later next week it is expected to move to the south or southeast, and it is not expected to move close to the Queensland coast.
Last updated
28 minutes ago, 08:25 am UTC




Tropical lows
Today
12:00 pm
Tomorrow
12:00 am
Tomorrow
12:00 pm
Sun 14 Apr
12:00 am
Sun 14 Apr
12:00 pm
Mon 15 Apr
12:00 am
Mon 15 Apr
12:00 pm
Tue 16 Apr
12:00 am
Tue 16 Apr
12:00 pm
Wed 17 Apr
12:00 am
Wed 17 Apr
12:00 pm
Thu 18 Apr
12:00 am
Thu 18 Apr
12:00 pm
Fri 19 Apr
12:00 am
Fri 19 Apr
12:00 pm
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Paul 13U
Less than 5%
Very Low
Less than 5%
Very Low
Less than 5%
Very Low
None
None
None
None
None
None
None
None
None
None
None
None
Tropical Low 12U
Less than 5%
Very Low
Less than 5%
Very Low
Less than 5%
Very Low
Less than 5%
Very Low
Less than 5%
Very Low
Less than 5%
Very Low
Less than 5%
Very Low
Less than 5%
Very Low
Less than 5%
Very Low
Less than 5%
Very Low
Less than 5%
Very Low
None
None
None
None
Tropical Low 14U
None
None
None
None
None
None
None
None
None
Less than 5%
Very Low
Less than 5%
Very Low
Less than 5%
Very Low
Less than 5%
Very Low
Less than 5%
Very Low
5%
Low

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惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
 楼主| 发表于 2024-4-12 19:51 | 显示全部楼层
红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2024-4-12 15:08
GFS 00Z预报12U在低纬持续西行并发展成旋

GFS 06Z有所调弱


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惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
 楼主| 发表于 2024-4-13 13:56 | 显示全部楼层
红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2024-4-12 16:54
Forecast description
Tropical Low 12U
Tropical Low 12U is a weak circulation north of the Northern T ...

12U已获JTWC编号98S
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
 楼主| 发表于 2024-4-13 14:05 | 显示全部楼层
Forecast description
Tropical Low 14U
Tropical Low 14U could move into the northern Coral Sea next week
  • 14U is likely to form northwest of Vanuatu mid next week, then move into the Coral Sea.
  • There is a chance 14U strengthens later next week, with a Low chance of being tropical cyclone strength next Saturday.
  • Later next week it is expected to move to the south or southeast. It is not expected to move close to the Queensland coast.
Last updated
6 hours ago, 11:33 pm UTC


Tropical lows
Today
12:00 pm
Tomorrow
12:00 am
Tomorrow
12:00 pm
Mon 15 Apr
12:00 am
Mon 15 Apr
12:00 pm
Tue 16 Apr
12:00 am
Tue 16 Apr
12:00 pm
Wed 17 Apr
12:00 am
Wed 17 Apr
12:00 pm
Thu 18 Apr
12:00 am
Thu 18 Apr
12:00 pm
Fri 19 Apr
12:00 am
Fri 19 Apr
12:00 pm
Sat 20 Apr
12:00 am
Tropical Low 12U
Less than 5%
Very Low
Less than 5%
Very Low
Less than 5%
Very Low
Less than 5%
Very Low
Less than 5%
Very Low
Less than 5%
Very Low
Less than 5%
Very Low
None
None
None
None
None
None
None
Tropical Low 14U
None
None
None
None
None
None
None
None
Less than 5%
Very Low
Less than 5%
Very Low
Less than 5%
Very Low
Less than 5%
Very Low
Less than 5%
Very Low
5%
Low

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惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
 楼主| 发表于 2024-4-13 19:09 | 显示全部楼层
Forecast description
Tropical Low 14U
Tropical Low 14U could move into the northern Coral Sea next week
  • 14U is likely to form northwest of Vanuatu mid next week, then move into the Coral Sea.
  • There is a chance 14U strengthens later next week, with a Low chance of being tropical cyclone strength next Saturday.
  • Later next week it is expected to move to the south or southeast. It is not expected to move close to the Queensland coast.
Last updated
2 hours ago, 08:26 am UTC



Tropical lows
Today
12:00 pm
Tomorrow
12:00 am
Tomorrow
12:00 pm
Mon 15 Apr
12:00 am
Mon 15 Apr
12:00 pm
Tue 16 Apr
12:00 am
Tue 16 Apr
12:00 pm
Wed 17 Apr
12:00 am
Wed 17 Apr
12:00 pm
Thu 18 Apr
12:00 am
Thu 18 Apr
12:00 pm
Fri 19 Apr
12:00 am
Fri 19 Apr
12:00 pm
Sat 20 Apr
12:00 am
Sat 20 Apr
12:00 pm
Tropical Low 12U
Less than 5%
Very Low
Less than 5%
Very Low
Less than 5%
Very Low
Less than 5%
Very Low
Less than 5%
Very Low
Less than 5%
Very Low
Less than 5%
Very Low
None
None
None
None
None
None
None
None
Tropical Low 14U
None
None
None
None
None
None
None
None
Less than 5%
Very Low
Less than 5%
Very Low
Less than 5%
Very Low
Less than 5%
Very Low
Less than 5%
Very Low
5%
Low
5%
Low

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惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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