南半球各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2023年7月－2024年6月）

红豆棒冰冰

红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2024-4-16 16:43
GFS 00Z报继续对15U有所反应，但强度有所调弱

GFS 06Z报进一步调弱15U

红豆棒冰冰

红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2024-4-16 20:21
GFS 06Z报进一步调弱15U

GFS近两报再度调强15U，按最新报甚至有机会达到脱水强度

红豆棒冰冰

Forecast description
Tropical Low 14U
Tropical Low 14U could form in the far northeastern Coral Sea but not expected to develop.

• A tropical low 14U may form over the far northeastern Coral Sea or towards Vanuatu on Thursday.
  

• The low will initially move southwest then south and southeast by Saturday and remain well away from the Australia mainland.
  

• The low is now not expected to develop so the rating is evaluated as Very Low.
  

• No direct impacts to coastal communities are expected.
  

Last updated
3 hours ago, 11:51 pm UTC
Tropical Low 15U
Increased chance of a tropical cyclone forming in the Arafura Sea from late Friday into Saturday.

• A tropical low (15U) may develop between Queensland and PNG in the Gulf of Papua or Arafura Sea on Thursday or Friday.
  

• 15U should move into the Arafura Sea between Cape York Peninsula and NT's northeast coast on Friday and then be slow moving. The chances of it developing into a tropical cyclone
  increases to Moderate (25%) on Saturday as a small system. The likelihood of being a tropical cyclone reduces to Low (15%) from late Sunday.
  

• 15U is likely to be slow moving with potential scenarios of being near Cape York or the NT's northeast coast remaining plausible at this stage.
  

Last updated
2 hours ago, 12:34 am UTC

Tropical lows

Today 12:00 pm

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Fri 19 Apr 12:00 am

Fri 19 Apr 12:00 pm

Sat 20 Apr 12:00 am

Sat 20 Apr 12:00 pm

Sun 21 Apr 12:00 am

Sun 21 Apr 12:00 pm

Mon 22 Apr 12:00 am

Mon 22 Apr 12:00 pm

Tue 23 Apr 12:00 am

Tue 23 Apr 12:00 pm

Wed 24 Apr 12:00 am

Tropical Low 14U

None

None

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

None

None

None

None

Tropical Low 15U

None

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

15% Low

25% Moderate

25% Moderate

25% Moderate

15% Low

10% Low

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

None

None

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 00Z报继续支持15U一定程度发展

红豆棒冰冰

Forecast description
Tropical Low 14U
Weak tropical Low 14U could form in the far northeastern Coral Sea but not expected to develop.

• A tropical low 14U may form over the far northeastern Coral Sea on Thursday.
  

• The low will move towards the south on Friday then southeast on Saturday and remain well away from the Australia mainland.
  

• The low is not expected to develop so the rating is evaluated as Very Low.
  

• No direct impacts to coastal communities are expected, however the low may contribute to a strengthening of the southeasterly winds to the south on Sunday and Monday that will extend towards the southern Queensland coast.
  

Last updated
2 hours ago, 09:09 am UTC
Tropical Low 15U
Increased chance of a tropical cyclone forming in the Arafura Sea from late Friday into Saturday.

• A tropical low (15U) may develop between Queensland and PNG in the Gulf of Papua or Arafura Sea on Thursday or Friday.
  

• 15U should move into the Arafura Sea between Cape York Peninsula and NT's northeast coast on Friday and then be slow moving. The chances of it developing into a tropical cyclone increases to Moderate (30%) on Saturday as a small system. The likelihood of being a tropical cyclone reduces to Low (15%) from late Sunday.
  

• 15U is likely to be slow moving with potential scenarios of moving towards Cape York Peninsula on Saturday or even the NT's northeast coast remaining plausible at this stage.
  

Last updated
3 hours ago, 08:57 am UTC

Tropical lows

Today 12:00 pm

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Fri 19 Apr 12:00 am

Fri 19 Apr 12:00 pm

Sat 20 Apr 12:00 am

Sat 20 Apr 12:00 pm

Sun 21 Apr 12:00 am

Sun 21 Apr 12:00 pm

Mon 22 Apr 12:00 am

Mon 22 Apr 12:00 pm

Tue 23 Apr 12:00 am

Tue 23 Apr 12:00 pm

Wed 24 Apr 12:00 am

Wed 24 Apr 12:00 pm

Tropical Low 14U

None

None

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

None

None

None

None

None

Tropical Low 15U

None

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

15% Low

30% Moderate

30% Moderate

25% Moderate

15% Low

10% Low

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

None

None

None

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 06Z报继续支持15U一定程度发展

红豆棒冰冰

15U已获JTWC编号99P

红豆棒冰冰

Forecast description
Tropical Low 14U
14U could form in the Coral Sea but unlikely to be tropical.

• A low may form over the northeastern Coral Sea on Friday.
  

• The low will move towards the south then turn southeast on Saturday, remaining well away from the Australian mainland.
  

• Over the weekend it is expected to lose any tropical characteristics.
  

• The low may strengthen southeasterly winds to its south on Sunday and Monday that will extend towards the southern Queensland coast.
  

• Given the non-tropical nature of this low, there will be no further updates for this system. Please refer to local marine forecasts.
  

Last updated
3 hours ago, 11:48 pm UTC

Tropical lows

Today 12:00 pm

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Sat 20 Apr 12:00 am

Sat 20 Apr 12:00 pm

Sun 21 Apr 12:00 am

Sun 21 Apr 12:00 pm

Mon 22 Apr 12:00 am

Mon 22 Apr 12:00 pm

Tue 23 Apr 12:00 am

Tue 23 Apr 12:00 pm

Wed 24 Apr 12:00 am

Wed 24 Apr 12:00 pm

Thu 25 Apr 12:00 am

Tropical Low 14U

None

None

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

None

None

None

None

None

None

None

None

Tropical Low 15U

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

10% Low

25% Moderate

25% Moderate

15% Low

10% Low

Less than 5% Very Low

Less than 5% Very Low

None

None

None

None

None

红豆棒冰冰

红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2024-4-18 10:22
Forecast description
Tropical Low 14U
14U could form in the Coral Sea but unlikely to be tropical.

BOM今天下午Tropical cyclone forecast不再提及14U
https://www.tyboard.net/forum.php?mod=redirect&goto=findpost&ptid=420&pid=9926

红豆棒冰冰

MFR昨晚热带天气讨论表示本周末可能有低压区在65E以西发展

The basin maintains a Near Equatorial Trough (NET) like pattern, with westerly winds present over
a large part of the basin just north of the equator. Convective activity is concentrated mainly to the
south of this NET, in areas where the trade winds are decreasing.
By the end of the week, under the influence of several waves (notably Equatorial Rossby and
MRG), a low-pressure area could develop west of 65E, fed by a weak monsoon flow. Numerical
forecasting models (IFS/GFS and their ensembles) are still struggling to come up with a unanimous
scenario. GFS as a whole, and some EPS members, suggest a circulation developing northeast of
Madagascar. IFS and most of the EPS members suggest instead a circulation developing to the
north or even north-west of the Cap d'Ambre. Whatever its position, the risk of cyclogenesis
appears limited until Saturday due to the weakness of the monsoon flow. However, if a circulation
were to develop, it could benefit in the longer term from weak shear and good upper level
divergence north of 10S.
For the next 5 days, the development of a tropical storm is not expected over the basin.