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MFR表示系统已有勉强闭合的环流中心，并评级为中
Zone of disturbed weather east of Seychelles archipelago (Mahé):
The latest satellite animations (visible imagery and general RGB) show a large low-pressure area
nestling to the west of the NET. The cloud pattern objectively adopts a little more curvature than the
previous day, with moderate convective activity and upper-level cloud outpourings suggesting a
good divergence aloft.
The HY-2C swath at 0630Z is indeed showing an ill-defined low-level circulation center, fairly
elongated towards 4S/61E, with gradient winds of around 20kt in the southern semicircle.
Low-level vorticity could increase very temporarily between now and Thursday or Friday under the
influence of a wave crossing (Kelvin and Rossby Equatorial waves).
Environmental conditions are likely to remain medium, despite good divergence aloft and good
ocean heat potential. In fact, despite a good supply on the polar side, the monsoon flow should
remain insufficient to effectively launch the cyclogenesis process.
The large majority of numerical simulations suggest this scenario, with the exception of the
American GFS model, which suggests the development of a moderate tropical storm northeast of
Cape d'Ambre (Madagascar) by Sunday.
However, European and American ensemble guidance (EPS and GEFS) suggest the emergence of a
weak closed circulation to the north or northeast of Madagascar at the end of the week.
Given the environmental conditions to come and these latest elements, the risk of a moderate
tropical storm occurring is estimated at low until Friday, then moderate beyond.
Thus, over the next 5 days, the risk of a moderate tropical storm is considered low until
Friday, then moderate until the end of the weekend. |
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楼主: 红豆棒冰冰
发表于 2024-4-23 19:29
